Saturday, August 1, 2020

Republicans Outregister Democrats in Pennsylvania

Well, this is a surprise. Here in Pennsylvania, Republicans are out registering Democrats. By a lot. At least recently.

"Since the 2016 primary elections, Republicans have added at net 165,000 voters their rolls, while Democrats have added 30,000. Democrats still have an 800,000-voter lead over Republicans in the state, but that number is down from 936,000 just four years ago when President Trump won the state by roughly 44,000 votes or less than 1%."

This is quite a switch from recent years when the GOP was being consistently out registered by Democrats (and even somewhat more so by people moving their registrations to Independent, or non-affiliated). While larger counties (like mine) continue to veer left, PA's smaller counties are becoming increasingly Republican.

No disrespect to the largely dysfunctional Pennsylvania Republican Party, but I suspect this trend may have a lot to do with the national GOP and Trump campaign's highly impressive digital campaign, among other factors. Polls have consistently suggested much higher voter enthusiasm for Trump vs. Biden. Also, by at least one account, 3 million people nationally who likely would have voted for Trump didn't bother to vote in 2016 (Democrats could likely make a similar claim, given the complete lack of enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton), and those folks would clearly be a top priority for their campaign.

Funny how this somewhat counters the polling trends we're being fed.

Democrats still have a sizeable lead on registrations, but the gap is narrowing. I wonder if this trend is playing out in other states?

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